The world is producing and consuming slightly less seafood, but the FAO maintains there will be upturns through to 2030
Global seafood production slipped slightly to a level of 178 million tonnes in 2020, with all but 20 million tonnes going to human consumption, according to the latest estimates of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
In the newly-published 2022 edition of its biennial publication, “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture” (SOFIA) report, the UN body reports that of this total, which was 1 million tonnes less than in 2018’s record year, capture fisheries contributed 90 million tonnes (51%) and aquaculture 88 million tonnes (49%). In addition to aquatic animals, 36 million tonnes (wet weight) of algae were produced in 2020, of which 97% originated from aquaculture.
The seafood production stagnation experienced in the last two years is mainly linked to a slight decline in capture fisheries, which decreased by 4.5% in 2019 compared with 2018’s peak of 96 million tonnes, and then by a further 2.1% in 2020. This decline was due to various factors, including fluctuating catches of pelagic species, particularly anchoveta, the recent reduction in China’s catches and the impacts of COVID-19 on the sector in 2020.
2020’s depleted supply led to average consumption falling 300 grams to 20.2 kg per capita, with the FAO finding that aquaculture accounted for 56% of the amount of aquatic animal food production available for human consumption.
However, the report also highlights that total fisheries and aquaculture production (excluding algae) has expanded significantly in the past seven decades – rising from just 19 million tonnes in 1950. It also notes that the total first sale value of fisheries and aquaculture production of aquatic animals in 2020 was US$ 406 billion, of which $265 billion came from aquaculture.
Slowing supply growth
Looking ahead, the latest SOFIA report projects that total fish production will increase by a further 24 million tonnes or 14% to reach 202 million tonnes by 2030 and that aquaculture will continue to be the driving force behind this growth. The total volume produced by the farming sector is expected to increase by 22% to reach 106 million tonnes by the turn of the next decade and should break the 100 million tonne threshold for the first time in 2027.
At the same time, the share of farmed species in global fisheries and aquaculture production for food and non-food uses is projected to grow from 49% in 2020 to 53% in 2030.
The report further forecasts that the average annual rate of growth will reduce from the 2010-2020 level of 4.2% to 2%, and offers a number of factors that should contribute to this slowdown. These include broader adoption and enforcement of environmental regulations, reduced availability of water and suitable production locations, increasing outbreaks of aquatic animal diseases related to intensive production practices and decreasing aquaculture productivity gains.
Meanwhile, capture fisheries production is projected to rise from its current level by 5 million tonnes or 6% to reach 96 million tonnes in 2030. FAO said this upturn will come from increased catches in some fishing areas where stocks of certain species are recovering, as well growth in catches in waters of the few countries with underfished resources. Improved utilisation of the harvest, including reduced discards, waste and losses are also expected.
Increased fish consumption
Most fisheries and aquaculture production will be utilised for human consumption and this share is expected to continue to grow from 89% in 2020 to 90% by 2030. Overall, by the end of the current decade, the amount of aquatic food for human consumption is projected to increase by 24 million tonnes to 182 million tonnes. This represents an overall increase of 15%, which the report notes is a slower pace when compared with the 23% growth experienced in 2010–2020.
FAO suggests this slowdown mainly reflects the reduced amount of additional fisheries and aquaculture production available, higher prices of aquatic foods in nominal terms, a deceleration in population growth and saturated demand in some countries – particularly high-income countries where aquatic food consumption is projected to show little growth.
Main factors behind the increase in global consumption will be a combination of high demand resulting from rising incomes and urbanisation, the expansion of fisheries and aquaculture production, improvements in post-harvest methods and distribution channels expanding the commercialisation of products. Demand will also be stimulated by changes in dietary trends, with a greater focus on better health, nutrition and diet.
In per capita terms, the consumption of aquatic food is projected to reach 21.4 kg in 2030. However, the average annual growth rate of per capita consumption of aquatic food will decline from 1% in 2010–2020 to 0.6% in 2020–2030, while the per capita consumption of aquatic food will increase in all regions except Africa. The highest growth rates are projected for Oceania (12%), the Americas (9%), Asia (7%) and Europe (6%).
At the same time, the fisheries and aquaculture sectors are expected to enter a decade of higher prices in nominal terms as a result of improved income, population growth and higher meat prices on the demand side; while marginal increases in capture fisheries production, the slowing growth in aquaculture production and cost pressure from some crucial inputs such as feed, energy and fish oil will impact the overall supply.
In addition, the slowdown in Chinese fisheries and aquaculture production will stimulate higher prices in China, with repercussions on world prices, the FAO said.
Ukraine conflict impacts
While the latest edition of the SOFIA report provides analysis through to 2020, it acknowledges that at the time of writing – March 2022 – the Ukraine conflict had added another level of uncertainty to global value chains and trade. It had already observed the prices of energy and inputs, including feed for aquaculture, had started to soar.
“This is increasing operational costs resulting in higher prices of fisheries and aquaculture products,” it advised, while flight cancellations and/or rerouting were placing pressure on cargo capacity and causing further supply chain disruptions and delays in deliveries.
“The conflict also risks causing profound geopolitical changes with effects on trade relations between the United States of America, Europe, China, the Russian Federation and the rest of the world. This is likely to have a considerable impact on the fisheries and aquaculture sector,” it said.
