NAPA warns supply chains already hit as mackerel crisis deepens

The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) confirmed this week that Northeast Atlantic mackerel stocks have fallen to their lowest level in decades and has recommended a 70% cut to the total allowable catch (TAC) to no more than 174,357 tonnes. NAPA said the catch advice for next year is “unwelcome, but unsurprising” after years of unilateral quota setting by Coastal States.

According to NAPA, the warning signs have long been clear.

NAPA’s Independent Chair Aoife Martin told WF: “Supply chains are already disrupted by the ongoing lack of agreement and associated price rises. 2025 has seen record-breaking prices for mackerel, and these are set to be further exacerbated by further cuts in the TAC.”

With its flagship Fishery Improvement Project (FIP) ending in April 2026, NAPA has made clear that decisive progress is required within the next six months if the fishery is to avoid losing major market support.

“The progress we need to see is a commitment from Coastal States to deliver a comprehensive sharing agreement, or a commitment to work with NAPA Partners to collaboratively find solutions,” Martin said, warning that global retailers and processors are already weighing alternative sourcing options.

“NAPA remains poised to provide ways forward and we have routinely engaged with Coastal States representatives - and will continue to do so – we are at a stage where the need for collaborative decision-making has never been more urgent.”

Interim steps proposed by NAPA for coastal states to adopt – including limiting high seas catches, reducing banking and borrowing, and prioritising mackerel for human consumption – were designed to be “practical and actionable” to buy time while political negotiations continue, Martin explained.

“We recognise the challenges here – there are deeply-held views held by parties involved in these fisheries and securing a full resolution could take time. Providing practicable and meaningful solutions that can be taken in the interim is key and this is at the heart of the NAPA mission.”

The coalition stressed that retailers and foodservice companies, many of them multinational brands, are increasingly prepared to use their buying power to press for reform. “Work in this realm has ramped up in terms of significance and tactical approach in the last 4–6 months,” Martin confirmed, pointing to intensified engagement with industry, negotiators and ministers.

If a quota-sharing deal is finally reached and catches fall in line with ICES advice, NAPA believes the fishery could begin moving back towards Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification. But the latest advice makes the path “a good deal more complicated,” Martin admitted.

The warning comes as the Scottish Pelagic Processors’ Association (SPPA) raised fears that a severe TAC cut could devastate processing hubs in Peterhead, Fraserburgh and Lerwick, where thousands of jobs depend on mackerel.

Martin acknowledged the scale of the challenge but said the economic pain now being felt was the direct result of political inaction. “For the last five years, NAPA partners have been highlighting the economic impact of the lack of management and a declining fish stock. The consequences we warned of have now been fully realised in the scientific advice. This will impact jobs, businesses and livelihoods, right across the supply chain. The signals indicating the need to manage these fisheries sustainably have been clear for a long time, and they have been ignored.”

NAPA is urging Coastal States to seize the next round of talks as a “critical opportunity” to agree on fair, science-based quota allocations that can restore the fishery’s long-term viability.