China imports reshape marine markets

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Global fishmeal and fish oil markets in 2025 are being shaped less by overall production volumes and more by shifting regional balances, particularly China’s growing reliance on imports.

While global output has shown modest growth, China’s sharp domestic production decline is emerging as the central driver of trade flows and market sentiment.

fish oil capsules

Source: IFFO

A stable global output contrasts with China’s supply shortfall, boosting imports and tightening marine ingredient markets

In Peru, the second fishing season in the North–Centre region concluded with the anchoveta fleet landing almost the full 1.63 million tonne quota. Despite this strong catch performance, full-year results indicate slightly lower fishmeal and fish oil production compared with 2024, reflecting yield constraints rather than raw material availability. Peru’s reduced oil yields in particular weighed on national fish oil output, even as landings remained high.

At the global level, cumulative fishmeal production up to November 2025 increased by around 2% year on year. Most producing regions contributed to this growth, offsetting declines recorded in parts of Africa as well as the Iceland and North Atlantic area. Fish oil production rose more strongly, up approximately 7% over the same period, supported by broad-based gains outside Peru.

Against this backdrop of relatively steady global supply, China stands out. Domestic marine ingredient production in 2025 is estimated to be 20%–30% lower than in 2024, constrained by higher operating costs, weaker margins and limited scope for recovery after the peak fishing period. As a result, China increased fishmeal imports by about 5% year on year, with Peru, Vietnam and Chile remaining the main suppliers.

Meanwhile, China’s aquaculture sector continues to expand, with 2025 output expected to exceed 2024 levels. Rising feed demand, led by white-leg shrimp farming in southern provinces, is reinforcing import needs ahead of the 2026 production season. Higher prices for soybean meal and corn are further supporting demand for marine ingredients, tightening the market despite only moderate global production growth.