Economic conditions, geopolitics and supply availability will significantly influence global animal protein markets in 2025, but while demand remains uncertain due to macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes, seafood is poised to surpass poultry as the leading contributor to the global protein supply growth, projects a new RaboResearch report from Rabobank.
According to its “Global Animal Protein Outlook 2025” – subtitled “Positioning for growth while managing uncertainties” – this year will mark a pivotal moment for production across various regions and commodities. At the same time, seafood will navigate global trade challenges to lead protein production growth.
The outlook states: “Seafood will contribute the largest gains in global protein supplies, dethroning poultry as the growth leader, though poultry will also grow.”
It forecasts that markets will see an increase in the salmon supply, while the growth in shrimp production will fall back.
“Overall production is set to grow slightly faster than in 2024, driven by aquaculture, wild catch, and poultry,” RaboResearch Senior Analyst – Animal Protein Angus Gidley-Baird said. “Seafood and pork are expected to transition from contraction to growth, while beef will move from growth to contraction, reshaping market dynamics and supply chains.”
Aquaculture and wild catch are projected to grow by 2.3% year-on-year, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in 2024. Poultry will continue its steady growth, while beef production will decline due to contractions in major regions. Pork production will be up marginally (+0.1%) after significant growth from 2021 to 2023 following recovery from African swine fever.
According to Gidley-Baird, growth in terrestrial species production will decelerate in most regions, with Brazil experiencing a 1% contraction. China will see a small increase after negative growth in 2024. Oceania will maintain steady production, while the EU-27+UK, North America, and Southeast Asia will face slower growth than in 2024.
Rabobank anticipates that in 2025, government policy and macroeconomics will shape demand and access to supply, with the outlook suggesting that as the global economy strives for recovery, anticipated policy shifts from new governments could introduce protectionist measures, leading to tariffs and higher trade costs. It adds that military conflicts may further disrupt shipping and freight, impacting global trade and increasing market volatility.
Although inflationary pressures have been easing, policy decisions could reverse this trend, potentially weakening consumer demand if incomes do not rise accordingly, it said.
The outlook also affirms that the presence and impact of animal diseases continues to confront producers. It anticipates that while vaccines, genetics and technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) aren’t new, the industry will increasingly turn to these solutions to better manage and control these challenges.
It also says sustainability remains a focus for animal protein supply chains, with legislative action and nature-related pressures posing strategic risks. As such, companies are encouraged to prepare for data collection as reporting guidelines evolve and to find synergies between climate, nature, and regulatory demands through emerging technologies.
With regards to salmon, the RaboResearch expects the global market will remain tight this year with 3.5% year-on-year growth. This will follow an estimated 1 to 2% increase in 2024. Consequently, salmon prices should remain strong this year but a recovery in the supply of superior-grade fish could see them fall below the peak levels seen in first-half of 2024.
Despite the lower prices expected for superior-grade, the higher quality will improve the average realised prices for farmers, it advises.
On shrimp, the outlook anticipates that to adjust to low prices and the oversupply, the supply growth will likely decelerate to 1 to 2% year-on-year in 2025.
“We expect Ecuadorian production growth to drop to single figures – 0% to 2% for 2024 and 2% to 3% for 2025 – after experiencing double-digit growth in recent years.”
It explains that prolonged declines in consumer spending in China, which is Ecuador’s main shrimp export market, may make producers hesitant to expand production rapidly. However, if China’s economy recovers more robustly than expected, this forecast could change.
Rabobank expects the anticipated slowdown in supply growth to ease the current oversupply, potentially marking an inflection point for shrimp prices.
“Overall, while the US and Europe show signs of recovery, China’s market remains a concern. The global shrimp market is poised for cautious recovery, with supply adjustments potentially stabilizing prices and fostering a more balanced market in 2025,” states the report.
