Trade with Canada and Mexico continues to be a major economic driver for rural America, with a new analysis highlighting the outsized role the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) plays in supporting jobs, investment and export growth across the food and seafood sectors.
The findings were released in Washington, DC, by the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA as the agreement enters its formal review period. Speaking at a press conference, coalition members urged the governments of all three countries to renew and strengthen the trade pact rather than risk disrupting deeply integrated North American supply chains.
Using a 2024 base-year model, the analysis examined the economic impact of US agricultural and seafood exports to Canada and Mexico under USMCA. It found that these exports generated US$149 billion in total economic output, supported nearly 500,000 US jobs and delivered $36 billion in wages.
According to the study, every $1 in agricultural and seafood exports under USMCA drove an additional $2.45 in economic activity across the US economy. In total, USMCA-related trade contributed $64 billion to US GDP and supported $13 billion in federal, state and local tax revenues.
“Our analysis shows that USMCA is a powerful driver for employment, investment and long-term competitiveness in the US agricultural sector,” said Krista Swanson, Chief Economist at the National Corn Growers Association. “While the agreement is due for a few targeted improvements, overall it is critical to the farm economy and a key part of rural America’s success and resilience, particularly during tough economic times.”
Under the terms of the agreement, the US, Canada and Mexico must begin a formal review of USMCA by July. As part of that process, the three countries will decide whether to renew the agreement, introduce targeted updates, terminate it or move to annual consultations.
Sector representatives at the press conference pointed to tangible gains across multiple commodity groups. Alexis Taylor, chief global policy officer at the International Fresh Produce Association, said USMCA has underpinned strong export growth since it entered into force.
“Since the agreement took effect, fresh US fruit export values have increased by 34%, while US vegetable exports have grown by 14%,” Taylor said. “These gains highlight the tangible value USMCA delivers across the fresh produce supply chain and reinforce the importance of a strong, integrated North American trade environment.”
The dairy sector echoed those concerns. Shawna Morris, Executive Vice President for Trade Policy and Global Affairs at the National Milk Producers Federation and the US Dairy Export Council, described Mexico and Canada as critical markets for American dairy exporters.
“USMCA is vital to our ability to trade with both partners,” Morris said. “We urge the president to renew the agreement with targeted changes that will make it even more robust and helpful to farmers.”
For seafood exporters, the message is similar. Canada and Mexico remain among the most important destinations for US seafood, both as end markets and as part of cross-border processing and distribution networks. Coalition members warned that uncertainty around USMCA could disrupt trade flows at a time when global markets are already under pressure from geopolitical and economic volatility.
Formed specifically for the USMCA review period, the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA brings together farm, ranching, processing, exporting and supply chain organisations. The group says its goal is to preserve market access, provide long-term certainty and ensure US agriculture and seafood remain competitive in a highly integrated North American market.
