Aquaculture volumes can be expected to grow this year, including increases in fish and shrimp harvests, projects Rabobank’s latest RaboResearch report.
According to the “Global Aquaculture Outlook 2025”, farmed finfish production will see the most growth, while the shrimp sector will see more modest increases.
After two consecutive years of decline, salmon production is expected to achieve mild growth between 2024 and 2026, said RaboResearch Seafood Analyst Novel Sharma. Norway will lead the upturn with year-on-year increases of 2.2% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026, with its volume rising to 1.56 million tonnes and 1.64 million tonnes, respectively.
“This growth is contingent on stable biological conditions and improving harvest weights,” Sharma said.
Meanwhile, after a difficult 2024, Chile is expected to gradually return to a growth trajectory, with a 1.4% year-on-year production increase expected in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. However, its production volumes are unlikely to surpass 2020 levels before 2026.
On shrimp, Rabobank expects global shrimp production growth will remain positive despite the relatively low prices. Although Sharma notes that after some years of strong growth, shrimp production is slowing, with volumes projected to increase by only 1% year-on-year in 2024 and 2% in 2025.
Latin America’s shrimp production is expected to slow, with growth rates dropping to 2% in 2024 due to lower prices. It’s anticipated to rebound to 4% in 2025 as the oversupply situation eases. The report states that Ecuador’s shrimp production, the world’s fastest-growing major aquaculture industry, will also experience a slowdown.
China and India are poised for modest shrimp growth in 2025 – 1.7% and 2%, respectively. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s production is forecast to grow by 4% in 2025, although disease management and high production costs continue to pose challenges.
Overall, freshwater species are expected to experience the highest growth among farmed species. Pangasius production is expected to grow robustly, up 7% year-on-year, with Vietnam leading the way and bolstered by rising demand from China. Global tilapia production is forecast to exceed 7 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in China and Indonesia.
According to RaboResearch’s annual aquaculture survey on finfish and shrimp production, performed in cooperation with the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA), the industry remains concerned about the market and economic conditions heading in 2025. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties pose significant challenges.
“Seafood is the most traded animal protein, with a larger trade value than all other animal proteins combined,” Sharma said. “Donald Trump’s presidential victory in the US could mean new import tariffs. This is especially significant for the seafood sector, as the US is the world’s largest importer, relying on imports for over 80% of its seafood consumption. Moreover, the potential trade war is likely to involve China, the world’s largest seafood producer, exporter and re-processor.”
According to survey results, market prices are once again the top industry concern heading into the coming year, followed by aqua feed costs and market access.
“This is understandable,” Sharma said. “2024 had some of the lowest seafood prices we have seen in many years. Although demand has started to improve for many species, prices are increasing from a low point, and the improvement is tentative. Possible trade restrictions from the US and the uncertain recovery of Chinese, Japanese, and European import demand in 2025 are clear concerns.”
