Vietnam’s seafood export turnover reached US$971 million for the month of July, a 6.1% increase compared to the same month of 2024. For the first seven months of 2025, the total export value exceeded $6.2 billion, reflecting a strong growth of 17.2%, but with the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (Vasep) also highlighting that many exporters expedited shipments to the United States before August 2025 – when the new countervailing tariffs announced by the US in early July come into effect.
Vasep confirmed that Vietnam’s seafood exports to the United States reached $145.8 million in July, down 19.6% year-on-year, despite a cumulative 7-month increase of 10.4%. The primary reason, it said, was the impact of anticipated US countervailing duties, set at 20% from August 2025, combined with anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties, disrupting exports and reducing orders.
Notably, the preliminary AD duty for shrimp (POR19) announced in early June reached 33.29% for companies like Stapimex, shaking market confidence. If this rate remains in the final December ruling, Vietnam’s shrimp risks losing its US market share, the association said.
In contrast, China showed strong growth: $221.5 million in July (+31.7%) and $1.33 billion over seven months (+42.6%). China’s robust import recovery, especially for shrimp and squid, provided room for Vietnamese firms to accelerate exports before the US tariffs took effect in August. This reflects enterprises’ flexibility in pivoting to high-growth markets and leveraging FTAs like RCEP and CPTPP for tariff advantages, Vasep said.
Beyond the US and China, markets like Japan, the EU, South Korea and ASEAN countries showed positive growth, indicating a favourable global consumption shift for Vietnamese seafood, supported by competitive pricing and abundant supply.
In terms of products, shrimp remains the leading export, reaching $2.49 billion over seven months (+23.6%), but Vasep pointed out that compared to competitors like Ecuador (15% tariff) or Indonesia and the Philippines (19%), Vietnamese shrimp risks losing competitiveness if the 20% countervailing duty is enforced.
Annual shrimp export forecasts range from $3.6-3.8 billion, assuming firms continue to tap Asian, EU and CPTPP markets effectively while promoting value-added products to Japan, it said.
Pangasius exports reached $1.22 billion over seven months (+11.1%). A highlight is the 0% AD duty (POR20) for eight large firms including Vĩnh Hoàn, restoring US market confidence. However, Vasep warned the new countervailing duty could significantly increase costs and prices.
With China’s market slowing due to inventory buildup, firms are compelled to expand into ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East, it added.
Conversely, tuna exports faced difficulties, declining 2.8% to $542 million over seven months, with a sharp 19% drop in July. Vasep said the main cause of this was domestic regulatory issues, such as Decree 37, which prohibits mixing domestically caught and imported raw materials and sets a minimum skipjack tuna catch size of 50cm. This restricts fishermen from harvesting and selling, while firms lack domestic raw materials for processing and cannot fully utilise the EU’s 11,500-tonne tuna tariff quota under the EVFTA.
Starting 7 August 2025, a 20% countervailing tariff took effect on Vietnamese imports, including seafood, entering the US.
Compared to competitors such as Ecuador (15%), the Philippines and Indonesia (19%) and Thailand (19%), Vietnam’s seafood faces the highest tariff. Additionally, mechanisms such as anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties and technical barriers like equivalence requirements under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) - puts Vietnamese seafood at an even greater competitive disadvantage.
The risk of losing market share in the US, especially for shrimp and tuna, is very real if the high 33.29% anti-dumping duty on shrimp is finalised, Vasep said, adding that for tuna, already challenged by raw material shortages, higher tariffs compared to Ecuador, the Philippines and Indonesia exacerbate the situation.
In the second half of 2025, Vietnam’s seafood export picture is forecast to be both challenging and promising, according to Vasep. Challenges stem from the 20% US countervailing duty, the risk of losing the shrimp market, tuna restrictions, as well as geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions, while the opportunities include the strong recovery of the Chinese, ASEAN and Japanese markets, along with easing technical barriers from the EU – creating growth potential for deeply processed products. Meanwhile, trade agreements such as the EVFTA, CPTPP and UKVFTA continue to provide Vietnam with outstanding tariff advantages over competitors.
For 2025, seafood exports are projected to reach about $9-9.2 billion with shrimp at $3.6-3.8 billion, pangasius at $1.8 billion, tuna at $850-900 million and other seafood contributing nearly $3 billion. However, to achieve this target, Vasep said enterprises must secure raw materials, improve quality, invest in processing technology and diversify markets – especially niche markets within the CPTPP, ASEAN and intra-Asia.
