Norwegian seafood exports continued to climb in September 2025, despite new tariff pressures in the United States and tighter global supply of key species. The Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) reported total exports worth NOK 17.9 billion, up 8% year-on-year, driven by higher prices for mackerel, cod, saithe and king crab.
But the strong performance comes against a backdrop of trade headwinds, particularly in the US. September marked the first full month in which Norwegian seafood faced a 15% tariff when entering the American market. While exports to the US still grew 9% in value to NOK 1.3 billion, analysts warn that the tariff – combined with currency fluctuations and stronger competition – has already begun to weigh on salmon.
Commenting, NSC CEO Christian Chramer said that exports of king crab, trout and mackerel largely boosted the value to the US in September, but added that salmon exports have clearly felt the pressure of increased tariffs and a weaker dollar.
Salmon exports to the US dropped by 5% in value in the third-quarter compared with last year, with fresh whole salmon particularly affected. In the first half of 2024, 10.6% of Norwegian salmon exports (by value) went to the US, but that share slipped to 7.6% in the third-quarter.
NSC’s Communications Director Martin Skaug told WF that with the 15% tariffs in place, combined with a weaker US dollar, slightly increased supply from competitors, and strong demand from China, Norway has seen a slowdown in the growth of salmon exports to the US over the past few months.
Skaug confirmed that exports of fresh whole salmon to the US have declined significantly, but that it remains the most important market for fillets.
“We still see growth in volumes to the US, but the overall global growth in fillet exports is higher than that to the US. This, of course, means that other markets are currently experiencing stronger volume growth than the US.”
Premium positioning
Skaug also pointed out that Norwegian salmon has traditionally commanded a premium price compared to Chilean salmon and continues to hold a strong position in the US market. However, the five percentage points higher tariffs that Norway faces compared to Chile create a competitive disadvantage for Norwegian salmon and some short-term headwinds.
“In the long run, though, we still believe the US market holds significant growth potential for Norwegian salmon.”
Despite the tariff, US imports of certain Norwegian seafood products grew in September, including red king crab. he noted that in this instance, Alaska’s season doesn’t open until 15 October and until then, Norway is the only supplier to the United States, as Russian products remain banned.
Russia previously supplied 11–12,000 tonnes of king crab annually, and neither Norway nor Alaska can compensate for those volumes, with the situation leading to the record-high prices for frozen king crab now seen in the US market.
Overall, the potential for increased seafood consumption in the US “is still substantial”, and the NSC continues to invest funds to increase demand in that market, he said.
China gains ground
In NSC’s latest analysis, China emerged as a bright spot. Norwegian seafood exports to China jumped 39% year-on-year in September to NOK 393 million, as demand for salmon and prawns surged. For salmon, Norway has increased its market share in China from 43% last year to 65%, largely at Chile’s expense.
The EU is still Norway’s largest overall market, but the country is now taking an increasing share of the growing Chinese salmon and prawn market, with Chramer remarking that this is “gratifying” as it comes at a time when world trade is experiencing demanding times with increased tariffs and economic turmoil.
With regards to species, and beyond salmon, mackerel was the standout performer in September, with export values climbing NOK 500 million compared to the same month last year. A combination of quota cuts, lower supply and strong demand has pushed prices to record highs.
In the third-quarter, Norway exported seafood worth NOK 45.9 billion, up 4% year-on-year. The largest markets were Poland, China and the US, with China posting the highest value growth – up 54% from Q3 2023.
So far in 2024, Norway’s seafood exports have reached NOK 130.8 billion, 5% more than the same period last year.
