The global salmon industry will continue to be the most profitable aquaculture sector, that’s according to Rabobank, global food and agribusiness bank.
Meanwhile, the same research suggests that the shrimp industry is still struggling to stabilise amid oversupply, low prices and weak Chinese import demand.
“Normalising salmon supply and likely better fish meal and fish oil production will soften prices in 2024, but only marginally, establishing a new higher price normal. For shrimp, the current low prices may also become the new normal,” said Gorjan Nikolik, senior global seafood specialist at Rabobank.
Positive growth
Rabobank said that the salmon industry will again be the most profitable aquaculture sector in the first half of 2024, with high prices and marginally lower feed and biological costs supporting strong farmer profitability. However, biological challenges remain the main risk factor.
“Relative to the first half of 2023, supply will be boosted by likely better biological conditions in Norway, Canada, the UK, Faroe and Iceland,” said Mr Nikolik.
“Chile, however, is a risk factor. Part of the lower supply expectation is due to legislation at the company level. We could see further biological challenges induced by El Niño.”
The shrimp industry, on the other hand, is facing uncertainty, with low prices and weak demand making it hard to predict as a market.
“Without a supply reduction, prices will remain at low levels. A key concern is weakness in Chinese import demand. While Chinese demand may still be positive, high inventory levels and a slightly lower renminbi will dampen a shrimp price recovery,” said Mr Nikolik.
Rabobank predicts that fish meal supply is expected to improve as El Niño conditions weaken and gfishing in Peru improves, enabling a normalisation of prices.
Consequently, better fish meal supply should enable normalisation of the price as terrestrial commodity alternatives such as soybean meal have been easing in price throughout 2023, with further mild softness expected for the first half of 2024.
However, although fish meal demand remains good, it is likely to be influenced by the lower prices of vegetable alternatives.
