US tariffs take their toll on Norway’s seafood exports

In January 2025, the US was Norway’s largest single seafood market, but a year later, the value of these exports was down by 37% to NOK 937 million, with the country overtaken by Poland (NOK 1.9 billion, +55%), China (NOK 1.2 billion, +8%) and the Netherlands (NOK 943 million, +8%) as the largest single markets.

“High and unpredictable tariffs and a weaker dollar have created great uncertainty and challenges in the US, which remains our largest fillet market for both salmon and trout. The demanding trade situation is something we are seeing the consequences of now,” Chramer said.

The importance of the US as a fillet market has already had consequences for the industry, highlighted NSC. After an 8% growth in export volumes for salmon and trout fillets last year, exports fell by as much as 9% in January compared with the same month last year.

“This has consequences for large parts of the seafood industry. Uncertainty is widespread, and the global seafood trade is so closely intertwined that this will have an impact across several species and markets,” Chramer said.

The CEO also pointed out that for the first time ever, the export value of salmon to China exceeded NOK 1 billion in a single month (+34% year-on-year). A total 10,997 tonnes of salmon products were exported to the market – an increase of 86%.

“Strong demand is cushioning some of the impact of the US downturn,” he said.

Also in January, the European market increased its share of total Norwegian seafood exports from 62 to 66% compared with the same month last year.

“Growth to Poland stood out in January. This is traditionally a processing market, but now they are also eating more salmon themselves,” Chramer said.

It was further noted that the Norwegian krone strengthened significantly against the US dollar and several important Asian currencies in January compared with the same month last year.

“This helped to dampen the value of exports measured in Norwegian kroner. A stronger krone makes Norwegian seafood more expensive in the US and Japan, for example,” Chramer said.

Meanwhile, with quotas for several wild-caught species being further reduced this year, exports in January were characterised by high prices and declining volumes for mackerel, saithe and prawns.

“For mackerel, we have to go all the way back to 1990 to find a lower export volume, and this is now being felt throughout the value chain. The battle for raw materials has never been tougher, which is demanding for the onshore industry,” Chramer said.

In aquaculture, Norway exported 112,092 tonnes of salmon worth NOK 10.4 billion in January, with the volume up 20% but the value falling 1% or NOK 133 million year-on-year. Poland, China and France were the largest markets for the product last month.

Favourable production conditions have resulted in higher volumes, while uncertainty in world trade and a weak dollar have shifted exports from the US to Asia, especially China, and Poland, which is the largest EU market for processing Norwegian salmon, confirmed NSC.

The US is still Norway’s most important market for fillets, but due to customs duties and a weaker dollar, exports of fresh fillets to the market have fallen by 37%. For frozen fillets to the US, the decline is 22%, while total exports have fallen by 6%.

“The tariff effect has now had a clear impact on Norwegian salmon exports. After a moderate decline of 1% in the fourth-quarter of 2025, there was a volume drop of 29% in January. This shows that market access has been significantly weakened and that Norwegian exporters are facing tougher competition from countries that do not have a 15% tariff,” said Karine Rød Haraldsson, NSC’s envoy to the US.