Europe
Yellowfin catches have been disappointing around the Eastern Indian and Western Pacific fishing grounds over the past year. Prices of yellowfin went up substantially in the course of 2006. Skipjack prices weakened in the course of 2006 to US$885 per tonne, however in the opening months of 2007, lower landings sent prices through the roof to an all time high of US$1,075 per tonne.
Less canned tuna production in EU
The long term decline in French tuna imports, to be used as raw material for tuna canneries, is in line with the gradual closure of canning factories. Total imports in 2006 were 20% lower than during 2005. Surprisingly whole tuna imports increased slightly during the period, while loin imports declined. The few remaining French canneries are thus concentrating on high quality products, for the upper end of the price scale. However, still 60% of total tuna imports into France are tuna loins.
Tuna raw material into Italy has shown a positive trend since 2005, which has continued into 2006. Some 56,000 tonnes of tuna were imported into Italy, somewhat ahead of the same period of 2005. Tuna loins expanded to 43,000 tonnes, thus accounting for 73% of total tuna imports, compared to 66% in 2005 and 47% in 1999.
The traditional and high quality tuna canneries in Spain have been resisting the use of tuna loins for processing for years. But now also this industry has to obey the rules of the market, where labour costs reduction is the main theme.
Spanish companies are opening up factories in Central American or Andean Community countries, to produce tuna loins, and also canned tuna, for the Spanish market. The impact of this move is already apparent in the present import statistics, but more of it will come in the coming years.
At present, tuna loins account for 40% of total tuna imports for Spanish tuna canneries, while this figure was only 8% back in 2002. Tuna loin imports into Spain reached 37,500 tonnes in 2006, 5% more than in 2005.
Most canned tuna importing countries in the EU expanded their purchases of canned tuna slightly during 2006. The main supplying countries continued to be those countries where European producers have their canneries. Prices expanded in the course of 2006, and further increases are likely in coming months. Low raw material supply and higher prices are the main reason behind these expected increases.
Strong demand in Europe
Demand in the EU market is rather strong, and some of the cost increases have been passed on to the consumers. However, further increases in prices will be matched by consumer resistance. The EU canneries will continue to invest in low cost labour countries. China and Vietnam are good candidates as newcomers in the tuna canning business. Tariffs for exports into the EU are relatively low for these countries, but might return to 24% in the near future. The EU tuna industry is not willing to accept reduced tariffs for developing countries with low labour costs.
USA
Canned, fresh and pouches
The US canned tuna market is seeing a continuation of the trend already set during the past two-to-three years: declining consumption and demand, and no possibilities to revive the market. Recent activities to inform the consumer about the real health risks of mercury in canned tuna seem not to have had any major impact on the average US consumer. Despite high raw material prices, canned tuna prices have not increased, as limited demand does not leave many possibilities for price hikes.
The non-canned tuna market in the USA remains an important outlet for Asian and Latin American exporters. After Japan, the USA has emerged as the second largest import market for fresh tuna and tuna products such as loins, saku, steaks and tuna cubes. In the first three months of 2007, imports of fresh/chilled tuna grew marginally to 6,500 tonnes against the previous year’s 6,400 tonnes. The market continues to absorb more locally caught bluefin due to the increased demand from local Japanese restaurants and to better prices compared to the export market (Japan).
The majority of fresh tuna imported into the USA originates in Latin America, while among Asian countries only Vietnam plays a major role. Fresh yellowfin is the main species used for sashimi in the US market, total imports in the first three months of 2007 were 4,500 tonnes, some 5% more than in the same period of 2006. Senegal emerged as an important supplier of this species.
The tuna pouch segment is the main growth area for US tuna imports, though compared to canned tuna, this segment is still rather marginal. In the first three months of 2007, some 10,300 tonnes were imported, some 6% more than in the same period of 2006. Thailand continues to be the main supplier of this product, but it is Ecuador that experiences the highest growth.
The imports of tuna as raw material for canneries in the USA continue to decline, as an obvious result of the closure of canneries. In the first three months of 2007, total imports of tuna raw material were 14,400 tonnes, slightly below the corresponding 2006 amount.
Canned tuna imports continue to decline
Official canned tuna consumption figures for 2005 show that tuna consumption is on a continuous decline. Fresh tuna imports increased so that canned tuna is the product mainly hit by lower consumption. In 2005, tuna consumption in the USA was 3.1lb per person, which compares to 3.3 in 2004 and to a peak in 1989 of 3.9 lb.
Normally the beginning of the year represents the main period for imports, as the reduced duty is applied from 1 January until the 6% duty quota is filled. It is thus very indicative for the whole of 2007, that imports during the first three months were 13% short of the corresponding 2006 imports. This leads to a forecast of not more than 145,000 tonnes of canned tuna imports for the whole of 2007.
Asia
Japan
Reportedly there is growing concern among the Japanese tuna marketers over the falling supply and stringent resource management program for wild-caught tuna. Taking advantage of the lean demand period, Japanese tuna industry leaders are having frequent meetings and discussions about the future of this industry including the global supply situation. Future supply shortage remains a major concern and large scale tuna farming is being considered seriously.
Following several tuna management programmes and fishing restrictions worldwide, global tuna landings have started to shrink but import values are moving up. These are reflected in the Japanese tuna import figures during January-March 2007. Total tuna (fresh and frozen) imports during this time fell by nearly 20% in quantity to 69,505MT compared to 86,430MT last year, same period. Import value on the other hand, increased by 11.5% to ¥70 billion during this period. Fresh tuna imports were at a record low at 10,334 MT.
Frozen tuna imports during the first quarter of this year were also at a five-year low and totalled 45,822MT worth nearly ¥40 billion.
In addition, the market imported more than 13,000MT of tuna loins/meat (mostly frozen), which is notably higher than the air-flown fresh whole tuna imports during the reporting period.
The import value of fresh/ frozen tuna loins and tuna meats (13,317 MT) was ¥30 billion during January-March 2007.
Current demand for frozen tuna from supermarkets is low; consumers are mostly after locally caught fresh skipjack – a popular seafood item among Japanese households. Hence sales of frozen sashimi tuna are quite low at present. The market for frozen loins, saku and steaks is rather stable with steady demand for sashimi and non-sashimi usage.
Thailand
With increasing raw material price and supply shortage, canned tuna will no longer be a cheap item in future. Bangkok skipjack price has been reported to be over US$1300/MT. Even at this price supplies are hard to get as poor catches continue everywhere.
Vietnam
According to a national news source, a Vietnamese fisheries authority has identified deep sea tuna fishing as the future development sector. Tuna fishing has expanded lately in the provinces of Binh, Phu Yen, and Khanh Hoa; exports are on the rise to Japan, the USA, and the EU totalling US$78 million in 2005.
Tuna exports consisted of fresh and frozen dressed fish, loins, steaks and treated tuna products as well.
