Aquaculture’s rapid expansion could be limited by its continued reliance on a fragile feed supply, according to a new study published in Nature Food. The analysis, conducted by researchers from Xiamen University, University of Massachusetts, Boston, University of Arizona, and University of Tasmania, found that despite major progress in using fishmeal and fish oil more efficiently, the aquaculture industry would need to secure an additional 1.8 million tonnes of alternative feed ingredients each year to keep pace with rising global demand for high-value farmed seafood such as salmon and shrimp.
“This is a practical moment to secure feed supply and unlock new value streams,” said the study’s lead author Ling Cao, a professor at Xiamen University. “Treating fishmeal and fish oil as strategic, finite resources, while accelerating alternative innovations, can help sustain aquaculture growth and reduce exposure to supply variability.”
The researchers used a novel shortfall impact model to examine how varying forage fish supply scenarios affect global fed aquaculture. They found that climate change and fishery management restrictions could reduce global forage fish catches by nearly 20%, potentially causing a 35% decline in global fed aquaculture output – and more than 70% reductions for some high-value farmed species if alternative feed ingredients are not scaled.
“Aquaculture has already made big strides in squeezing more value out of every kilogram of fishmeal and oil use,” said coauthor Kevin Fitzsimmons, a professor at the University of Arizona. “Continued progress will come from expanding supply options and advancing technologies in feed formulation and circular resources use.”
According to the researchers, the takeaway for industry leaders is clear: fishmeal and fish oil should be treated as strategic but finite resources with variable and volatile availability and cost. By accelerating the use of alternative ingredients – such as microbial, algal, insect-based, and next-generation plant proteins and algae oils – and pairing these with advances in breeding, feed formulation, and circular waste streams, the sector can position itself as a frontrunner in sustainable blue food innovation.
Recent market events illustrate this need, they added. The 2023 closure of Peru’s anchoveta fishery – one of the most significant in recent years – caused major disruptions in global fish oil supplies and posed challenges for aquaculture production. The gap left by this supply disruption was partially filled by commercially available algae-based oils, highlighting that the need for more scalable alternative feed ingredients is already evident.
The study was a collaborative research effort undertaken by the volunteer judges of the F3 – Future of Fish Feed initiative. F3 is a collaborative effort between NGOs, academic institutions and private partnerships to accelerate the commercialisation of innovative, substitute aquaculture feed ingredients to replace wild-caught fish.
