Some positive trends are starting to be seen in the global aquaculture industry, including increased demand for farmed salmon and shrimp in the second-half of 2024, according to a new RaboResearch report from Rabobank.
The analysis also says that despite ongoing biological challenges in farming these species, the industry is being supported by the recovery of Western economies. At the same time, feed costs are anticipated to decrease, thanks to a rebound in the fishmeal supply, which Rabobank calls “a silver lining for the sector”.
The report’s author Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Global Seafood Specialist for RaboResearch, anticipates the salmon market will continue to experience a tight supply, with prices expected to remain high through the latter half of 2024, but that there are hopeful signs ahead with regards to demand.
Seasonal patterns will influence salmon pricing, but the overall trend suggests that costs will stay above average, Nikolik said, while Norway and Scotland are poised for a supply recovery, although this remains tentative due to unresolved biological issues.
Meanwhile, US and Asian markets are experiencing depressed demand, which has not allowed prices to offset the high costs resulting from weak biological performances. However, the anticipated reduction in feed costs should offer some relief to producers, he added.
“In the shrimp sector, there are indications of a turnaround, particularly in Western markets where demand and prices are gradually increasing as inflation eases.”
Nikolik said the industry is set to benefit from lower farming costs due to improved fishmeal supply. However, the recovery remains fragile, with Chinese import demand expected to decline.
Also, the positive supply growth from Ecuador, India, and Vietnam could potentially lead to an oversupply, casting doubt on the possibility of a price recovery in the second half of 2024. He added that the depressed profitability of shrimp farming continues to favour large, sophisticated operations, which could lead to increased industry consolidation.
With regards to aquafeeds and the supply of marine ingredients, the report advises that the second-quarter of this year marked the recovery of the Peruvian anchoveta fishery, with strong fishmeal and fish oil production. At the time of writing, prices for fishmeal had declined, although they hadn’t corrected back to pre-El Nino levels.
Rabobank said it may take another good fishing season for the full price correction to occur. It added that given that La Nina conditions are expected, it is assuming that there will be good fishing in the second-half of 2024.
