But scientists say the season\u2019s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began on 1 June, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile this hurricane season has gotten off to quiet start, it\u2019s critical that the American people are prepared in case a hurricane strikes,\u201d said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke.<\/p>\n
NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 per cent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 per cent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 per cent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 per cent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes.<\/p>\n
The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111mph or higher.<\/p>\n
In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean \u2013 have come to fruition.<\/p>\n
\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics,\u201d said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o may mean fewer storms compared to recent seasons, but it doesn\u2019t mean you can let your guard down,\u201d said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service. \u201cHistory shows that hurricanes can strike during an El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d Some examples include Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969, Bob in 1991, Danny in 1997 and Lili in 2002.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Ni\u00f1o continue to develop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"sponsor":[],"class_list":["post-2699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-industry-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2699\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2699"},{"taxonomy":"sponsor","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.worldfishing.net\/icefish-conference\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/sponsor?post=2699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}